More certainty about uncertainty

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چکیده

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Questions about certainty and uncertainty in clinical practice.

PURPOSE This article offers a critical response to Kamhi's (2011) essay regarding the need to balance certainty and uncertainty in evidence-based practice (EBP). METHOD Points of concordance and discordance (counterpoints) between Kamhi's essay and the author's frames of reference were considered. RESULTS In agreement with Kamhi, a major role is outlined for clinicians to use questions stra...

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I believe that industry requirements for software estimate accuracy are infeasible. This is because software development, like economics and management science, is a complex, non-linear adaptive system and as such any attempt to estimate project effort or timescales is likely to result in very inaccurate estimates. In my view, it is important to understand the nature of the uncertainty in estim...

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The certainty of uncertainty.

Uncertainty of measurement comprises, in general, many components. Some of these components may be evaluated from the statistical distribution of the results of a series of measurements and can be characterized by experimental standard deviations. The other components, which also can be characterized by standard deviations, are evaluated from assumed probability distributions based on experienc...

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“ Certainty Equivalence ” and “ Model Uncertainty ”

Simon’s and Theil’s certainty equivalence property justifies a convenient algorithm for solving dynamic programming problems with quadratic objectives and linear transition laws: first, optimize under perfect foresight, then substitute optimal forecasts for unknown future values. A similar decomposition into separate optimization and forecasting steps prevails when a decision maker wants a deci...

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Simon’s and Theil’s certainty equivalence property justifies a convenient algorithm for solving dynamic programming problems with quadratic objectives and linear transition laws: first, optimize under perfect foresight, then substitute optimal forecasts for unknown future values. A similar decomposition into separate optimization and forecasting steps prevails when a decision maker wants a deci...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Chemical Education

سال: 1972

ISSN: 0021-9584,1938-1328

DOI: 10.1021/ed049p851.2